Societies are more complex than they appear.
Understanding them can be very challenging. Among many
other things, it requires you to shed your biases and see the reality however
much it is at odds with your own opinions. Just till yesterday, Nate
Silver of fivethirtyeight.com seemed
to have got the exact pulse of the society, with quite an ease. That was until he
was basing his opinions purely on statistics and then 'Trump' happened!
Like Nate Silver, many pundits, some
relying on statistics, others on their years of experience are bamboozled
by the rise of a man they deplore, demonize, deprecate and despise. They have tremendous
hatred for him principally because he is proving them all wrong every passing
day. They try to come back armed with new ammunition and still the man stands.
He goes on talking the harsh reality no one has the courage to talk about.
The people in the media business much like the
politicians themselves are sore losers. The reason behind that is
quite understandable. When you are a part of the media, you start
thinking of yourself as a person who can make or break, almost at
will, people's opinions. You feel so exhilaratingly powerful that
ultimately when you see the same power defying you, you are dismayed and feel
defeated. At last in a rather valiant effort, you throw everything you have, just
to prove your own point which is long defeated. But as they say eventually –
the reality prevails.
So what exactly is this reality that seems to have
been kept under the carpets by constant and deliberate efforts by mainstream
media! Let’s try and understand by some
of the key points of Trump Campaign:
Americans
have been constantly losing their jobs to foreign countries like
China, Japan, India and Mexico. Over the past two decades or so, Chinese and
Japanese governments are constantly manipulating their currencies even as US
went on a signing spree of trade agreements with various nations. These two
factors combined together served a lethal blow to the companies who chose to
operate in the US as they became less competitive and eventually uncompetitive.
They were in turn forced to shift their factories to low cost countries such as
China, India and Mexico among others. This has essentially driven almost all
manufacturing jobs out of US. The democrats seem to care about it but in
reality they don’t, the republicans don’t seem to care about it altogether. This
feeling cuts across all the political base wherein almost all people agree that
there are far less jobs available in the US as compared to the 90s. Trump has
got this issue right at the top of his campaign. He doesn’t care about the
conservative views of GOP and doesn’t speak politically correct rubbish like
democrats do. On this point alone, he has got many Americans (republicans,
independents as well as some democrats) flocking behind him wherein they see a
man in Trump who really wants to change this all by exerting the power in
global trade America always wielded over past century. Guess what? This is
entirely possible. Only if America stands up to its potential and power it has
always possessed over world economy, even at the cost of being seen as a bully.
American
foreign policy is faltering. From Jerusalem to Moscow, from Tehran to
Havana everywhere America seems to be getting it wrong. After inheriting
blunders from Bush administration, America under Obama took an isolationist
view at global affairs. First, they seemed oblivious to the plight of Israel
while Hamas and Palestinian authority inflicted misery in Gaza. America under
Obama seemed more like an enemy to Israel ( the only democracy in the
middle-east) than a friend it has been over decades. To top it all they entered
into highly lopsided deal with Iran which gives Iran a capability to dominate
the region and practically take over Iraq in coming years. ISIS which Obama
once famously wrote off comparing it with a ‘ Junior Varsity Basketball Team’
has proven to be a menace on planet earth. America meanwhile seems more
interested in keeping Assad out of power rather than eliminating ISIS. Amidst
all this, Russia has successfully filled up the void created by the US by
taking the centre-stage at global arena. America under Obama has remained
largely favored towards Islamist regimes like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and
Palestine contrary to their position over the years of standing upto Islamist
extremism. Trump on the other hand doesn’t mince his words when he says,
‘invading Iraq and killing Saddam was a mistake’. He treats Israel as a friend
and calls Saudi an evil. His views clearly closer to the reality, have a struck
a right chord with conservatives as well as some centre leaning liberals. He is
more right than any politician has ever been on all the issues related to
foreign policy. His secret is rather simple- he speaks reality.
Illegal
immigration is one of the key issues plaguing American Society today.
It’s a bit ironic as many of today’s elites are past immigrants to the US and
hence they find themselves at a moral quandary while criticizing the ongoing
influx of immigrants. What makes it trickier however is that the immigrants who
are entering America today do not simply come with an intention to earn their
living; some of them come with an intent to harm the society and those some
cannot be easily segregated from the balance. Which makes immigration ( not
illegal immigration as being said out of Political Correctness) an extremely
sensitive matter from National Security standpoint. Some of the southern states
are flooded with Mexican illegal immigrants whose main trade is to deal in
drugs. Trump again seems to have got this one with a pin-point precision. He
goes all-out while talking on this subject. Most Americans whether they like
Trump or not would somehow find themselves agreeing to the points he has said
so far on this topic. Some may want to build a wall some may not, but everyone
agrees there is a big problem and it needs to be addressed quickly.
Social
Inequality in reverse is at work in America today. Since 1970,
majority share of the population increase is contributed by immigration or
immigrant population. This in turn has meant rise in liberal voter base which
tends to be social/ democrat leaning. The conservative values are diminishing.
Majority of white rural as well as urban population has started feeling
isolated from the process of active mainstream politics which essentially is freely
carrying out a socialist, liberal agenda. Under Obama regime, the divide between
the races has widened with Police feeling largely subverted while on the other
side there are movements such as #BlackLivesMatter which suggests minorities
aren’t happy either. All in all, last eight years have created a tremendous
anger in the communities. Trump has successfully identified and tapped into
anger of this (white) class who are willing to support a person who commits to
make them part of mainstream politics despite his fallacies.
Statisticians are right till they start getting
it wrong; that is when historic data can no more be considered as a benchmark
for the future. Nate Silver, a mere mortal, is just playing to this rule. This
election is like no other we have seen before. People are willing to shed off
the political correctness. People care about their security and jobs more than
their political ideologies. People simply want politicians to voice their own
opinion in an earnest manner not just in theatrical way as politicians have
been doing so far. People want to be on the side that’s right for them and not
what the society ( read Mainstream media) defines as right.
The political commentators, if they want, can read all of
this. Its clearer than the writing on the wall. Yet, they want to ignore it and
play the game that they have been playing. They remain delusional that they
still are the opinion makers. Voters these days like to rely more on the social
media and direct statements on twitter and facebook rather than the concocted
views of media which people think of as corrupt and biased. It’s a harsh
reality the political commentators should face. The Genius that Mr. Silver is,
he still needs to stand in front of mirror and ask himself a hard question - Is
he writing what he thinks is right or should he consider writing ‘reality’?
That’s when he will truly start seeing what will go down in the history of
Political Science as – The Trump Phenomenon.
