the Chaos

On a bright and sunny morning in August 2008, I and a fellow Indian student were waiting at a bus stop at Marshal Street, Syracuse - an upstate town in the state of New York. We were new to the town and to the country still trying to make sense of things that seemed so overwhelmingly organized. The bus to our destination- Carousel Mall was slated to arrive in 20 minutes. An amiable looking old  lady just joined us on the waiting bench and extended her kind courtesies before asking us whether we are Muslims. We were both stunned at the suddenness of the question and quickly replied that we are Hindus. She didn't seem to know much about our religion but she went on saying that she thought all Indians are Muslims. Just at the same time a group of three black young men wearing hats, low waist jeans and sneakers walked past. They were happy and they spat on the street merrily. The old lady hissed scornfully. She then said in a sarcastic tone that our own president is going to be a Muslim. It's only going to make America Great, she added just as our bus arrived and we hopped onto it while the lady continued to wait. When Donald Trump announced his campaign line - " Make America Great Again" I got instantly reminded of the lady, the conversation and that day.

A fellow classmate, a fine looking black girl, watched live streaming of Oath taking ceremony of Barack Obama months later, even as the Professor went on talking about fundamental role of 'Ideation' in the process of Entrepreneurship. The girl was in no mood to care for the professor's words. Clearly, it was one of the proudest moment of her life. She was evidently happy and beaming with pride. Afterall it represented a common aspiration among her community to rise to the top and be treated as equal. I myself was enchanted by the message of the leader - he offered the country a "Hope". I decided to read his biography- 'Audacity of Hope'. And so I did.

The university campus was a fair mix of races, cultures and communities. Everyone seemed to get along so nicely. Black guys dated beautiful looking white girls and they all went on sharing beers, barbecues and pizzas around the whole campus. I thought to myself it's such a blessed nation to have risen above the basic differences. And then I started noticing the superficiality of the apparent cohesiveness in the society ; in supermarkets, in Coffee shops and in the restaurants. The more I started scratching below the surface the more I could see the deep fissures that are covered with superficial layers of rosy Political Messages and every person's desire to be seen as Politically correct. Sipping on a hot cup of Americano, I wondered how long these layers will survive before the fissures are wide open to the society and the world at large. 

One rainy morning in Mumbai in 2015, on my way to office I flipped open the Twitter. My timeline was flooded with news articles covering the riots that broke open in the city of Ferguson. And I mused to myself, whether it's the beginning. Within weeks the protesters formed a larger movement of # BlackLivesMatter which spread throughout America. The fissures were now glaringly visible not just to America but to the whole world. I wondered if most Americans could see this coming even on that morning back in 2008. Or whether It's only now that they have started to realize it's true gravity. 

When one of my (white) American friend visited me in Delhi in 2012, we were at a busy junction in Chhatarpur. He told us how his colleagues back in Boston mentioned Indian cities as utter chaos. And how he replied to them that it's like a " large beehive ". That the chaos in India is organized and most people don't seem to get it. The remark was striking and has stuck with me ever since. 

Ironically enough, now when I look back at that beautiful morning in Syracuse, I see a place which was wonderfully organized on the surface but in utter chaos underneath. The Chaos is now out in the open- and they even have a beautiful line to describe it. 'Make America Great Again!'

The Trump Phenomenon

Societies are more complex than they appear.

Understanding them can be very challenging. Among many other things, it requires you to shed your biases and see the reality however much it is at odds with your own opinions. Just till yesterday, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com seemed to have got the exact pulse of the society, with quite an ease. That was until he was basing his opinions purely on statistics and then 'Trump' happened!

Like Nate Silver, many pundits, some relying on statistics, others on their years of experience are bamboozled by the rise of a man they deplore, demonize, deprecate and despise. They have tremendous hatred for him principally because he is proving them all wrong every passing day. They try to come back armed with new ammunition and still the man stands. He goes on talking the harsh reality no one has the courage to talk about.

The people in the media business much like the politicians themselves are sore losers. The reason behind that is quite understandable. When you are a part of the media, you start thinking of yourself as a person who can make or break, almost at will, people's opinions. You feel so exhilaratingly powerful that ultimately when you see the same power defying you, you are dismayed and feel defeated. At last in a rather valiant effort, you throw everything you have, just to prove your own point which is long defeated. But as they say eventually – the reality prevails. 

So what exactly is this reality that seems to have been kept under the carpets by constant and deliberate efforts by mainstream media!  Let’s try and understand by some of the key points of Trump Campaign:

      Americans have been constantly losing their jobs to foreign countries like China, Japan, India and Mexico. Over the past two decades or so, Chinese and Japanese governments are constantly manipulating their currencies even as US went on a signing spree of trade agreements with various nations. These two factors combined together served a lethal blow to the companies who chose to operate in the US as they became less competitive and eventually uncompetitive. They were in turn forced to shift their factories to low cost countries such as China, India and Mexico among others. This has essentially driven almost all manufacturing jobs out of US. The democrats seem to care about it but in reality they don’t, the republicans don’t seem to care about it altogether. This feeling cuts across all the political base wherein almost all people agree that there are far less jobs available in the US as compared to the 90s. Trump has got this issue right at the top of his campaign. He doesn’t care about the conservative views of GOP and doesn’t speak politically correct rubbish like democrats do. On this point alone, he has got many Americans (republicans, independents as well as some democrats) flocking behind him wherein they see a man in Trump who really wants to change this all by exerting the power in global trade America always wielded over past century. Guess what? This is entirely possible. Only if America stands up to its potential and power it has always possessed over world economy, even at the cost of being seen as a bully.

    American foreign policy is faltering. From Jerusalem to Moscow, from Tehran to Havana everywhere America seems to be getting it wrong. After inheriting blunders from Bush administration, America under Obama took an isolationist view at global affairs. First, they seemed oblivious to the plight of Israel while Hamas and Palestinian authority inflicted misery in Gaza. America under Obama seemed more like an enemy to Israel ( the only democracy in the middle-east) than a friend it has been over decades. To top it all they entered into highly lopsided deal with Iran which gives Iran a capability to dominate the region and practically take over Iraq in coming years. ISIS which Obama once famously wrote off comparing it with a ‘ Junior Varsity Basketball Team’ has proven to be a menace on planet earth. America meanwhile seems more interested in keeping Assad out of power rather than eliminating ISIS. Amidst all this, Russia has successfully filled up the void created by the US by taking the centre-stage at global arena. America under Obama has remained largely favored towards Islamist regimes like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Palestine contrary to their position over the years of standing upto Islamist extremism. Trump on the other hand doesn’t mince his words when he says, ‘invading Iraq and killing Saddam was a mistake’. He treats Israel as a friend and calls Saudi an evil. His views clearly closer to the reality, have a struck a right chord with conservatives as well as some centre leaning liberals. He is more right than any politician has ever been on all the issues related to foreign policy. His secret is rather simple- he speaks reality.

        Illegal immigration is one of the key issues plaguing American Society today. It’s a bit ironic as many of today’s elites are past immigrants to the US and hence they find themselves at a moral quandary while criticizing the ongoing influx of immigrants. What makes it trickier however is that the immigrants who are entering America today do not simply come with an intention to earn their living; some of them come with an intent to harm the society and those some cannot be easily segregated from the balance. Which makes immigration ( not illegal immigration as being said out of Political Correctness) an extremely sensitive matter from National Security standpoint. Some of the southern states are flooded with Mexican illegal immigrants whose main trade is to deal in drugs. Trump again seems to have got this one with a pin-point precision. He goes all-out while talking on this subject. Most Americans whether they like Trump or not would somehow find themselves agreeing to the points he has said so far on this topic. Some may want to build a wall some may not, but everyone agrees there is a big problem and it needs to be addressed quickly.

      Social Inequality in reverse  is at work in America today. Since 1970, majority share of the population increase is contributed by immigration or immigrant population. This in turn has meant rise in liberal voter base which tends to be social/ democrat leaning. The conservative values are diminishing. Majority of white rural as well as urban population has started feeling isolated from the process of active mainstream politics which essentially is freely carrying out a socialist, liberal agenda. Under Obama regime, the divide between the races has widened with Police feeling largely subverted while on the other side there are movements such as #BlackLivesMatter which suggests minorities aren’t happy either. All in all, last eight years have created a tremendous anger in the communities. Trump has successfully identified and tapped into anger of this (white) class who are willing to support a person who commits to make them part of mainstream politics despite his fallacies. 

Statisticians are right till they start getting it wrong; that is when historic data can no more be considered as a benchmark for the future. Nate Silver, a mere mortal, is just playing to this rule. This election is like no other we have seen before. People are willing to shed off the political correctness. People care about their security and jobs more than their political ideologies. People simply want politicians to voice their own opinion in an earnest manner not just in theatrical way as politicians have been doing so far. People want to be on the side that’s right for them and not what the society ( read Mainstream media) defines as right.

The political commentators, if they want, can read all of this. Its clearer than the writing on the wall. Yet, they want to ignore it and play the game that they have been playing. They remain delusional that they still are the opinion makers. Voters these days like to rely more on the social media and direct statements on twitter and facebook rather than the concocted views of media which people think of as corrupt and biased. It’s a harsh reality the political commentators should face. The Genius that Mr. Silver is, he still needs to stand in front of mirror and ask himself a hard question - Is he writing what he thinks is right or should he consider writing ‘reality’? That’s when he will truly start seeing what will go down in the history of Political Science as – The Trump Phenomenon.